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The literature on stock return predictability has identified macroeconomic and technical predictors that when combined, leads to out-of-sample outperformance relative to the historical mean null. This paper investigates a new method for aggregating information beyond using forecast combination...
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agents optimally form estimates of the states from an incomplete information set. We derive a version of the Kalman filter …) conditions under which the endogenous Kalman filter will at least asymptotically reveal the true states. In general we show that …
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