In this study, we try to examine whether the forecast errors obtained by the ANN models affect the breakout of financial crises. Additionally, we try to investigate how much the asymmetric information and forecast errors are reflected on the output values. In our study, we used the exchange rate...

We relax the assumption of full information that underlies most dynamic general equilibrium models, and instead assume agents optimally form estimates of the states from an incomplete information set. We derive a version of the Kalman filter that is endogenous to agents' optimising decisions,...

In this paper, we revisit the empirical observation that prices rise like rockets when input costs increase but fall like feathers when input costs decrease. The analysis draws on a novel dataset that include daily retail prices of gasoline and diesel from virtually all fuel stations in Germany...