This paper investigates the effect of child dependency on the economy and external imbalances under an asymmetric demographic and productivity transition within a lifecycle model. It embeds dependent children within a two-country model with lifecycle features to examine child dependency’s...

The current global-imbalance literature (which explains why capital flows from poor to rich countries) is unable to explain China's foreign asset positions because capital cannot flow out of China under capital controls. Hence, this literature has not succeeded in explaining China's large and...

This note discusses two complex issues. First, why might a country want to reduce its current account deficit or surplus? And second, why might the international community ask for more? In general, there are both domestic and multilateral reasons for countries to reduce current account deficits...

In recent years China has experienced two forms of extreme macroeconomic imbalance: an expenditure imbalance in the sense of very high investment and very low consumption, giving rise to rapid capital accumulation; and an imbalance between expenditure and production, producing external...

Before the crisis, there were strong arguments for reducing global imbalances. As a result of the crisis, there have been significant changes in saving and investment patterns across the world and imbalances have narrowed considerably. Does this mean that imbalances are a problem of the past?...

We study the effects of debt-financed fiscal transfers in a general equilibrium, heterogeneous-agent model of the world economy. In the long run, increases in government debt anywhere raise the world interest rate and increase private wealth everywhere. In the short run, a country with a...

This paper builds upon the model of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) and extends it to triplecrises. It applies a new visualisation approach combining elements of an event study analysis and a fan chart technique. This approach illustrates the deviation of fundamentals in the runup to...

We analyze the relationships between bubbles, capital flows, and economic activities in a rational bubble model with two large open economies. We establish a reinforcing relationship between global imbalances and bubbles. Capital flows from South to North facilitate the emergence and the size of...

The paper examines the extent to which current account imbalances of euro area countries are related to intra-euro area factors and to external trade shocks. We argue that the traditional explanations for the rising imbalances are correct, but are incomplete. We uncover a large impact of...

Long- and short-run current account balance (CAB) determinants of the nineteen Eurozone (EZ) member states vis-a-vis the United States (US) are examined. Particularly, the competitiveness of the EZ vs the US, the relationship between the current account deficit and the budget deficit (twin...