A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against model instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock andWatson (2004) and Clark and McCracken (2009). In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight...

We examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight combination strategies for forecasting using many time-varying models of the relationship between inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation reflect the uncertainty across models using many statistical...