This study is the first attempt to investigate both the linear and non-linear Granger causality between wavelet transformed spot and futures oil prices. Our findings consistently indicate bidirectional causality between the spot and futures oil markets at different time scales, under linear and...

The quality of match of four statistical matches used in the LIMEW estimates for Great Britain for 1995 and 2005 is described. The first match combines the fifth (1995) wave of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) with the 1995–96 Family Resources Survey (FRS). The second match combines...

The statistical estimate of the branching ratio η of the Hawkes model, when fitted to windows of mid-price changes, has been reported to approach criticality (η = 1) as the fitting window becomes large. In this study -- using price changes from the EUR/USD currency pair traded on the...

The traditional econometric techniques for frontier models, namely the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA), the Thick Frontier Approach (TFA) and the Distribution Free Approach (DFA) have in common that they depend on a priori assumptions that are, whether feasible or not, difficult to test. This...

The endo-exo problem lies at the heart of statistical identi fication in many fields of science, and is often plagued by spurious strong-and-long memory due to improper treatment of trends, shocks and shifts in the data. A class of models that has shown to be useful in discerning exogenous and...

Increases in the federal funds rate aimed at stabilizing the economy have inevitably been followed by recessions. Recently, peaks in the federal funds rate have occurred 6-16 months before the start of recessions; reductions in interest rates apparently occurred too late to prevent those...

We model the complex global dependencies in international financial markets using spatial techniques. Our methodology allows us to go beyond conventional correlation analyses and volatility-spillover models confined to studying pairwise relationships, and improves the accuracy of return...

Puzzling deviations from the predictions of rational finance theory have been extensively documented empirically. In this paper, we offer an explanation for one of these anomalies, the “excess volatility puzzle”, i.e. the observation that prices fluctuate more than fundamentally justified....

Recent modeling developments have created tradeoffs between attribution-based models, models that rely on causal relationships, and “pure prediction models†such as neural networks. While forecasters have historically favored one technology or the other based on comfort or loyalty to a...