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This paper examines if overreaction of oil price forecasters is affected by uncertainty. Furthermore, it takes into account joint effects of uncertainty and oil price returns on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model from Gonz alez et al. (2005) is applied with univariate...
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Monetary Union -- 3. Macroeconomic-Financial Policies And Climate Change Nexus: Theory & Practices -- 4. Exchange Market … the Literature -- 12. How Accurate Are Risk Models During COVID-19 Pandemic Period? -- 13. What Does Matter The Climate … Change Risk On Agriculture Adaptation: Evidence From Southern Mediterranean Country. …
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According to empirical studies, the life cycle of labor supply volatility exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This may lead to the conclusion that demographic change induces a drop in output volatility. We present an overlapping generations model that replicates the empirically observed pattern and...
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increases households' precautionary savings. In the model, the combination of income risk and the precautionary savings motive …
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We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model incorporates volatility uncertainty. With a standard probabilistic model, essential equivalence between the absence of arbitrage and the existence of an equivalent martingale measure is a folk theorem, see...
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