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causal inference and systematic sampling of stationary variables preserves the direction of causality. This paper examines … results. Quite contrary to the stationary case, this paper shows that systematic sampling of integrated series may induce … spurious causality. In particular, systematic sampling induces spurious bi-directional Granger causality among the variables if …
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We summarize the general combination approach by Billio et al. [2010]. In the combination model the weights follow logistic auto-regressive processes, change over time and their dynamics are possible driven by the past forecasting performances of the predictive densities. For illustrative...
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This paper aims at decomposing the forecast error variance of excess returns in five major European stock markets into the variance of news about future excess returns, dividends and real interest rates. Special emphasis is given on the issue of stationarity and structural breaks in the...
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unscheduled news, is given. Depending on the sampling frequency we estimate that between one and two thirds of the variation in … predictive power of the different components depends on sampling frequencies. …
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