This paper analyzes the dynamics of the Spanish public debt-GDP ratio during the period 1850-2021. We use recent procedures to test for explosive bubbles under the presence of time-varying volatility (Harvey, Leybourne, Sollis and Taylor, 2016; Harvey, Leybourne and Zu, 2019, 2020; Kurozumi, Skorobotov...

This paper explores the relationship between equity prices and the current account for 17 industrialized countries in the period 1980 - 2007. Based on a panel vector autoregression, I compare the effects of equity price shocks to those originating from monetary policy and exchange rates. While...

We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty -- approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts -- to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods...

We analyze the relationship between asset price bubbles and systemic risk, using bank-level data covering almost thirty years. Systemic risk of banks rises already during a bubble’s build-up phase, and even more so during its bust. The increase differs strongly across banks and bubble...

We analyze the relationship between asset price bubbles and systemic risk, using bank-level data covering almost thirty years. Systemic risk of banks rises already during a bubble's build-up phase, and even more so during its bust. The increase differs strongly across banks and bubble episodes....