We study the effect of tax policy on stock market returns in the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom using GARCH models and a unique daily dataset of legislative tax changes during the period 1 December 1978 to 31 January 2018. We find that days of discretionary tax legislation during...

This paper looks at the evolution of U.S. stock prices from the time of the Presidential elections to the end of 2017. It concludes that a bit more than half of the increase in the aggregate U.S. stock prices from the presidential election to the end of 2017 can be attributed to higher actual...

Although the most recent US economic expansion began in 1991, rapid growth and job creation only date from 1996. This faster growth was driven principally be consumer demand, but while the stock market bubble that developed from 1996 might explain spending by upper-income groups, most share...

A single macroeconomic factor based on growth in the capital share of aggregate income exhibits significant explanatory power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and non-equity asset classes, with risk price estimates that are of the same sign and similar in...

A single macroeconomic factor based on growth in the capital share of aggregate income exhibits significant explanatory power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and non-equity asset classes, with risk price estimates that are of the same sign and similar in...

A single macroeconomic factor based on growth in the capital share of aggregate income exhibits significant explanatory power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and non-equity asset classes, with risk price estimates that are of the same sign and similar in...