We provide evidence that changes in the equity price and volatility of individual firms (measures that approximate the definition of 'granular shock' given in Gabaix, 2010) are key to improve the predictability of aggregate business cycle fluctuations in a number of countries. Specifically,...

We provide evidence that changes in the equity price and volatility of individual firms (measures that approximate the definition of 'granular shock' given in Gabaix, 2010) are key to improve the predictability of aggregate business cycle fluctuations in a number of countries. Specifically,...

Some of the sharpest movements in the major swap markets take place during days of US economic data releases. These yield movements induce spikes in volatilities during those days. Swaption prices adjust to reflect the spikes: the volatilities implied by these prices tend to fall once the...