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We investigate the movements of the yield curve after the release of major U.S. macroeconomic announcements through the lenses of an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model with macroeconomic fundamentals. Combining estimated yield responses obtained using high-frequency data with model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970137
We investigate the movements of the yield curve after the release of major U.S. macroeconomic announcements through the lenses of an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model with macroeconomic fundamentals. Combining estimated yield responses obtained using high-frequency data with model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012079
Revisions of consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables positively predict announcement day forecast errors …, whereas stock market returns on forecast revision days negatively predict announcement day returns. A dynamic noisy rational …
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Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...
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