We find that equity mispricing impacts the speed at which firms adjust to their target leverage and does so in predictable ways depending on whether the firm is over- or underlevered. For example, firms that are above their target leverage and should therefore issue equity (or retire debt),...

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to examine the quantitative effects of speculative bubbles on capital accumulation, growth, and welfare. A near-rational bubble component in the model equity price generates excess volatility in response to observed technology shocks. In...

We use the forward-looking information from the US and global capital markets to estimate the economic impact of global warming, specifically, long-run temperature shifts. We find that global warming carries a positive risk premium that increases with the level of temperature and that has almost...

We use the forward-looking information from the US and global capital markets to estimate the economic impact of global warming, specifically, long-run temperature shifts. We find that global warming carries a positive risk premium that increases with the level of temperature and that has almost...

Portfolio managers’ orders trade off return and trading cost predictions. Return predictions rely on alpha models, whereas price impact models quantify trading costs. This paper studies what happens when trades are based on an incorrect price impact model, so that the portfolio either over- or...

In this paper we revisit one of the missing linksʺ between budget balances and the economic cycle, namely the impact of asset prices on fiscal revenues. We estimate revenue elasticities with respect to equity and real estate price indices for 16 OECD countries, as well as for a synthetic euro...