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In this study, we empirically investigate whether or not the conventional belief that new information about fundamental value is revealed in the futures market ahead of the spot market is applicable to four important storable energy commodities, oil, gasoline, heating oil and natural gas. Taking...
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We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty -- approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts -- to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods...
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We develop an asset-pricing model with endogenous corporate policies that explains how inflation jointly impacts real … asset prices and corporate default risk. Our model includes two empirically grounded nominal frictions: fixed nominal … when inflation falls. An increase in inflation has opposite effects, but with smaller magnitudes. In the cross section, the …
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