This paper analyzes stock market reactions to election polls. Stock markets anticipate the impact of events on future cash flows. Current values depend on future cash flows and risk prospects. We posit that election polls are indications of the political platforms that are expected to win...

This study examines the effects of political uncertainty around US presidential elections on firm risk, expected return, trading activity, and dispersion of investor beliefs. To this end, we utilize information embedded in short-term options and exploit cross-sectional differences in firms'...