After the 2020 U.S. presidential election, counting votes and calling states took more time than usual, particularly in … battleground states. In the days following the election, winning probabilities changed frequently as new results were tabulated …. Based on the sensitivity of stocks to changes in winning probabilities observed before the election, we show how the stock …

We show that political geography has a pervasive effect on the cross-section of stock returns. We collect election … results over a 40-year period and use a political alignment index (PAI) of each state's leading politicians with the ruling … (presidential) party to proxy for local firms' proximity to political power. Firms whose headquarters are located in high PAI states …