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The USAGE model for the United States is used to quantify economic costs due to stock mispricing, made operational by shocking Tobin’s q. The simulations quantify a potentially large impact even in the most favorable environment, where export demand holds up, and, the dollar is pro-cyclical. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009411626
The booms and busts in U.S. stock prices over the post-war period can to a large extent be explained by fluctuations in investors' subjective capital gains expectations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism at market peaks and excessive pessimism at market throughs....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490485
Using data for six metropolitan housing markets in three countries, this paper provides a comparison of methods used to … measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare … ability to identify bubbles as they form. In view of the complexity of the asset pricing approach, we conclude that a simple …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514230
For most of the past decades, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region has experienced rapid expansion, driven largely by increasing energy revenues, and growth-focused government policies. As the region's population increases in size, and becomes wealthier and more urbanized, significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102716
future house prices which, in turn, led to a collapse in lending standards. A common feature of all bubbles which complicates … rise in asset prices. A comparison of the U.S. housing market experience with ongoing housing market trends in Norway once … economic fallout from the recent financial crisis, central bank views on the use of monetary policy to lean against bubbles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007703
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001472934
This paper studies the US equity market during the COVID-19 period in the first half of 2020. There is a record rise, then a record fall in prices and then a record recovery. Throughout the period there was extreme volatility and much short term momentum with fear and greed alternating. The VIX...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830521
We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301214
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003074925
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