It is well documented that bond excess returns are time-varying and that they can be explained by predetermined risk factors. This paper builds a theoretical model to forecast excess returns on treasury bonds in the context of China's unique monetary system. Empirical evidence shows that bond...

We examine the market reaction to recommendations in the Financial Post's “Hot Stock” column. For buy recommendations, we find a significant average excess return of 1.23% on the publication day; the average excess return is greater (1.84%) for small firms. We also document a significant...

We propose a new, price-based measure of information risk called abnormal idiosyncratic volatility (AIV) that captures information asymmetry faced by uninformed investors. AIV is the idiosyncratic volatility prior to information events in excess of normal levels. Using earnings announcements as...

We investigate the effect of information uncertainty on the macroeconomicannouncement premium of the market return in addition to theeffect of fundamentals uncertainty. We show that the premium issignificant only during low information uncertainty periods, opposite to thecase of fundamentals...

Jumps and diffusive changes in stock prices are different ways in which information is reflected in the prices. We use nonparametric methods to decompose returns on individual stocks into jumps and diffusive components. Contrary to the conventional assumption that jump intensity is positively...