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Trend followers, contrarians and fundamentalists : explaining the dynamics of financial markets
Schmitt, Noemi; Westerhoff, Frank H. - 2019
We propose an empirically motivated financial market model in which speculators rely on trend-following, contrarian and fundamental trading rules to determine their orders. Speculators' probabilistic rule-selection behavior - the only type of randomness in our model - depends on past and future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012014573
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Can heterogeneous agent models explain the alleged mispricing of the S&P 500?
Lux, Thomas - 2020
Tests of excessive volatility along the lines of Shiller (1981) and Leroy and Porter (1981) count among the most convincing pieces of evidence against the validity of the time-honored efficient market hypothesis. Recently, using Shiller s distinction between ex-ante rational (fundamental) price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214509
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Nonlinear dynamics : evidence for a small stock exchange
Scheicher, Martin - 1996
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000607725
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Complex and chaotic nonlinear dynamics : advances in economics and finance, mathematics and statistics
Vialar, Thierry - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003752872
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Intermittency, long-memory and financial returns
Bhansali, Raj; Holland, Mark P.; Kokoszka, Piotr S. - In: Long memory in economics : with 50 tables, (pp. 39-68). 2006
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003375590
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The Markov-switching multifractal model of asset returns : GMM estimation and linear forecasting of volatility
Lux, Thomas - In: Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a … 26 (2008) 2, pp. 194-210
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003675695
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Dynamique non-linéaire des marchés boursiers du G7 : une application des modèles STAR
Jawadi, Fredj; Koubbaa, Yosra - In: Finance : revue de l'Association Française de Finance 28 (2007) 1, pp. 29-74
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003492511
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The Markov-Switching Multifractal Model of asset returns : GMM estimation and linear forecasting of volatility
Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2006
Multifractal processes have recently been proposed as a new formalism for modelling the time series of returns in finance. The major attraction of these processes is their ability to generate various degrees of long memory in different powers of returns - a feature that has been found in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003392192
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A Markov-switching multifractal approach to forecasting realized volatility
Lux, Thomas; Morales-Arias, Leonardo; Sattarhoff, Cristina - 2011
The volatility specification of the Markov-switching Multifractal (MSM) model is proposed as an alternative mechanism for realized volatility (RV). We estimate the RV-MSM model via Generalized Method of Moments and perform forecasting by means of best linear forecasts derived via the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009314521
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Realizing stock market crashes : stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility
Barunik, Jozef; Kukacka, Jiri - 2014
This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology that allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market … periods. While we find that the stock markets showed signs of bifurcation in the first half of the period, catastrophe theory … that the proposed methodology provides an important shift in the application of catastrophe theory to stock markets. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010407518