We study the response of stock prices to monetary policy, distinguishing effects of exogenous shocks from "Delphic" shocks that reveal the Federal Reserve's macroeconomic forecasts. To decompose monetary policy surprises into these separate components we construct a measure of Federal Reserve...

This paper shows that changes in the tone of central bank communication have a significant effect on asset prices. Tone captures how the central bank frames economic fundamentals and its monetary policy. When tone becomes more positive, stock prices increase, whereas credit spreads and...

We quantify the importance of non-monetary news in central bank communication. Using evidence from four major central banks and a comprehensive classification of events, we decompose news conveyed by central banks into news about monetary policy, economic growth, and separately, shocks to risk...

This paper investigates the scarcity effects of quantitative easing (QE) policies, drawing on intra-day transaction-level data for German government bonds, purchased under the Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP) of the ECB/Eurosystem. This paper is the first to match high-frequency QE purchase...

This paper documents that ECB announcements increase the stock market volatility in the euro area (EA) on the same day. I consider two volatility measures from January 1998 to May 2019. First, a realized volatility measure uses intraday data for 8 different stock market indices. Second, a range...

We examine howthe verbal complexity of ECB communications affectsfi-nancial market trading based on high-frequency data fromEuropean stock index futures trading. Studying the 34 events between May 2009 and June 2017, during which the ECB Governing Council press conferences covered unconventional...

This study investigates the announcement effects of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) ETF purchase program on equity prices, focusing on the policy change made on March 19, 2021 when the BOJ announced that it would no longer purchase Nikkei225-tracking and JPX400-tracking ETFs but would purchase more...

Since mid-1990s, negative stock returns comove with downgrades to the Fed's growth expectations and predict policy accommodations. Textual analysis of FOMC documents reveals that policymakers pay attention to the stock market. The primary mechanism is policymakers' concern with the...

I show that the well-documented pre-FOMC drift and high returns on FOMC day are realized only on the small subset of FOMC days preceded by key macro data releases. On the other two-thirds of all FOMC days, there is neither drift nor any announcement premium. Predictors of pre-FOMC drift (VIX and...

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) conducts an unconventional monetary policy that includes exchange-traded fund (ETF) purchases, which can be expected to affect aggregate equity indices. As equity ETF purchases represent a unique and exceptional monetary policy framework, there are few studies on how such...