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, and time-varying likelihood of rare disasters. I embed this time-variation of risk in an endowment economy with a … high equity risk premium, excessive volatility of equity return, predictability of market returns through the price …-implied correlations between equity premium, variance risk premium, and the implied volatility of deep OTM put options are consistent with …
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In a model with multiple Pareto-ranked equilibria we add trade in assets that pay based on the realization of a sunspot. Asset trading restricts the equilibrium set in a way that raises welfare by eliminating equilibria with a high likelihood of disasters. When the probability of a disaster is...
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