We propose a new weighting function, generalized Wang transform, derived from normality invariance. This function takes various shapes, including concave, convex, S-shaped and inverse S-shaped functions, depending on the range of parameters and distinguishes the curvature and elevation of...

We use the Bayesian method introduced by Gallant and McCulloch (2009) to estimate consumption-based asset pricing models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our structural estimation. Based on the market and aggregate...

This paper characterizes the equilibrium stock price reaction to arbitrarily distributed signals. This stock price reaction is shown to be proportional to the Fisher score of the news calculated under the risk-neutral probability measure. The expression for the Fisher score takes a particularly...

We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs setting of Kurz (1994a,b). In a potentially non-stationary but stationarizable environment, it is possible to hold more than one (small-r) “rational” expectation. When rational...

In institutional frameworks comprising of n2 agents, there are often aspects of the institution or specific exchanges or entities within the institution that require to be changed. Carrying out such a change involves a game of co-ordination between the agents who wish to make it and they can...

I study the effects of risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) on optimal portfolios and equilibrium asset prices when investors receive information that is difficult to link to fundamentals. I show that the desire of investors to hedge ambiguity leads to portfolio inertia and excess...

I study the effects of aversion to risk and ambiguity (uncertainty in the sense of Knight (1921)) on the value of the market portfolio when investors receive public information that they find difficult to link to fundamentals and hence treat as ambiguous. I show that small changes in public...

Does buying a stock bias one’s expectations about its future value? We find experimental evidence that it does. First, in a laboratory experiment, we elicit peoples’ price predictions for simulated stocks and compare them to the Bayesian benchmark. Then, in a second experiment, we elicit...

In environments with expected utility, it has long been established that speculative trade cannot occur (Milgrom and Stokey), and that the value of public information is negative in economies with risk-sharing and no aggregate uncertainty (Hirshleifer, Schlee). We show that these results are...