In assessing drivers of commodity prices and volatility at this stage of the current super-cycle in commodities (year 12 of a projected 25), it is vital to understand that production cost is a fundamental. Moreover, marginal production costs are among the most powerful drivers of commodity...

In this paper we study the effect of induced positive mood on price patterns in experimental asset markets. We conduct experimental asset markets where subjects go through a mood induction procedure prior to trade. After the subjects are induced with positive affect, they can trade an...

This paper theoretically investigates the effect of uncertainty about future investment on expected stock returns. Based on a real options framework, we incorporate the learning-by-doing effect to analyze the irreversible investment problem. In our investment decision framework, the timing of...

We propose Keynesian utilities as a new class of non-expected utility functions representing the preferences of investors for optimism, defined as the composition of the investor's preferences for risk and her preferences for ambiguity. The optimism or pessimism of Keynesian utilities is...

Maximum drawdown refers to the largest cumulative loss of a portfolio within a given time interval. While it has been used by investment professionals as an important measure of portfolio risk for many years, its nature and its implications for asset pricing have not been well understood. The...

Changes in average FinaMetrica monthly risk tolerance scores were evaluated during the January 2007 to May 2012 time period that spanned the global financial crisis. The research objective was to test whether fluctuations in equity returns influence average risk tolerance scores over time. A...

We generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model in Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating the recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences of Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model remains...

We propose a new weighting function, generalized Wang transform, derived from normality invariance. This function takes various shapes, including concave, convex, S-shaped and inverse S-shaped functions, depending on the range of parameters and distinguishes the curvature and elevation of...

Using a simple dynamic consumption-based asset pricing model, this paper explores the implications of a representative investor with smooth ambiguity averse preferences [Klibanoff, Marinacci and Mukerji, Econometrica (2005)] and provides a comparative analysis of risk aversion and ambiguity...

This paper considers a sequence of discrete-time random walk markets with a single risky asset, and gives conditions for the existence of arbitrage opportunities or free lunches with vanishing risk, of the form of waiting to buy and selling the next period, with no shorting, and furthermore for...