The purpose of this paper is to make a quantitative and qualitative critical analyse regarding the three important aspects of stock market evolution. First, the forecasting problems are presented and analyse in order to establish the main problems and the potential solutions. Second, the...

This paper evaluates in-sample and out-of-sample stock return predictability with inflation and output gap, the variables that typically enter the Federal Reserve Bank's interest rate setting rule. To examine the role of monetary policy fundamentals for stock return predictability, we introduce...

Economic assets can be classified into two broad categories: those earning an inherent return and those earning a fiat money return. This article shows that both are valued according to the same general principle based on GDP (a constant equal to expected long term real per capita GDP growth)...

This paper investigates the seasonality patterns within various asset classes. We find that a strategy that buys the assets with the largest same-calendar-month past average returns (up to ten years) and sells the assets with the smallest same-calendar-month past average returns, earns...

Volatility is essential to consider uncertainty surrounding investments in financial assets. For this reason, financial industry regulators, mutual fund managers, individual and institutional investors, and policymakers are concerned about volatility. Against this background, this paper...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of stock return predictability in the Indian stock market by employing both the portfolio and cross-sectional regressions methods using the data from January 1994 and ending in December 2018. We find strong predictive power of size, cash-flow-to-price...

Bai and Green (2010) argue that existing studies related to international diversification of portfolio mainly concentrated on the risk-returns tradeoffs from the developed markets perspective. Very few literatures available on the behavior on emerging markets, they are scarce in comparison to...

Bai and Green (2010) argue that existing studies related to international diversification of portfolio mainly concentrated on the risk-returns tradeoffs from the developed markets perspective. Very few literatures available on the behavior on emerging markets, they are scarce in comparison to...

We investigate the predictive ability of financial and macroeconomic variables for German stock and bond returns using a battery of performance metrics in addition to measures of superior predictive accuracy to identify the ‘best' models. We also examine whether combination forecasts provide...

In 2008, the S&P 500 experienced a drawdown of about 50% from peak to trough. Many assets which are typically considered effective equity diversifiers also faced precipitous losses. In stark contrast, volatility levels as measured by VIX experienced significant increases and in 2008 repeatedly...