In the present paper an attempt has been made to estimate how political stability affects stock prices. This analysis refers to EU, Japan and the United States for the period (1997–2012). The findings of present model are in agreement with (Nixon, 2014); (Voth, 2001). The econometric model...

This paper presents an empirical investigation of scaling and multifractal properties of US Dollar–Deutschemark (USD–DEM) returns. The data set is ten years of 5-min returns. The cumulative return distributions of positive and negative tails at different time intervals are linear in the...

The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic...

This paper re-examines the liquidity effect on stock expected returns in the NYSE over the period 1926–2008, the pre-1963 period, for which there is a lack of research, and the post-1963 period. The results from the entire sample of 1926–2008 show that expected returns increase with the...

With approximately 900 million observations we conduct, to our knowledge, the largest study ever of intraday stock return predictability using machine learning techniques finding consistent out-of-sample predictability across market, sector, and individual stock returns at various time horizons....

What explains the sharp movements of the yield curve in response to major U.S. macroeconomic announcements? To answer this question, we estimate an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model with macroeconomic fundamentals as risk factors. We assume that the yield curve reacts to announcements...

We propose a new modeling approach for the cross-section of returns. Our model, Factorization Asset Pricing Model (FAPM), allows for predictor interactions by introducing second-order observable characteristics interactions regarding the unobservable high-order loadings. If the characteristics...

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...

The finance literature looks at a number of factors to explain risk premia in corporate debt, such as liquidity effects, jump-to-default risk, and contagion risk. Stochastic re-covery rates as a source of systematic risk have not received much attention so far, most likely due to the...

This paper finds positive evidence of return predictability and investment gains for individual corporate bonds for an extended period from 1973 to 2017. Our sample consists of both public and private company bond observations. We have implemented multiple machine learning methods and designed a...