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of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) and macroeconomic announcements. Employing the General-to-Specific (Gets …) Autometrics methodology, we identify distinct behavioral responses between retail and institutional investors to SAD, noting a …
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This paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that only...
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autoregressive models. We propose using Lasso-type estimators to reduce the dimensionality to a manageable one and provide strong …
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, including principal component analysis, GARCH-family model, and LASSO regression. The results of this paper suggest that the …
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