The objective of this paper is to provide a practical tool for stock price evaluation and forecasting under Extreme Value Theory (EVT). Three existing models are reviewed; these models include: Mordern Portfolio Theory, Black-Scholes, and Jarrow-Rudd models. It was found that these models may not...

In this paper, we build estimation error in mean returns into the mean-variance (MV) portfolio theory under the assumption that returns on individual assets follow a joint normal distribution. We derive the conditional sampling distribution of the MV portfolio along with its mean and risk return...

This paper studies a Stieltjes-type moment problem defined by the generalized lognormal distribution, a heavy-tailed distribution with applications in economics, finance and related fields. It arises as the distribution of the exponential of a random variable following a generalized error...

This paper presents evidence suggestive of a conditional violation of weak-form market efficiency. Evidence suggests that the AR coefficient monotonically decreases along the return distribution, for each value and equal weighted market indices. These results suggest that the AR coefficient is...

Neither existing theory nor prior empirical work can tell us the impact of non-normality on required sample sizes for Student-t tests of the mean in U.S. stock returns. Prior empirical work and bounds from a modified Berry-Esseen theorem do suggest, however, that the answer should vary with...

We present an empirical study of the Aumann-Serrano performance index for multi-period gambles when the underlying stochastic process is assumed to be a normal mixture process with time-varying volatility. We compare the Aumann-Serrano performance index for multi-period gambles with that for...

Much of financial engineering is based on so-called “complete markets” and on the use of the Black-Scholes formula. The formula relies on the assumption that asset prices follow a log-normal distribution, or in other words, the daily fluctuations in prices viewed as percentage changes follow...