The objective of this paper is to provide a practical tool for stock price evaluation and forecasting under Extreme Value Theory (EVT). Three existing models are reviewed; these models include: Mordern Portfolio Theory, Black-Scholes, and Jarrow-Rudd models. It was found that these models may not...

In this paper, we build estimation error in mean returns into the mean-variance (MV) portfolio theory under the assumption that returns on individual assets follow a joint normal distribution. We derive the conditional sampling distribution of the MV portfolio along with its mean and risk return...

This paper studies a Stieltjes-type moment problem defined by the generalized lognormal distribution, a heavy-tailed distribution with applications in economics, finance and related fields. It arises as the distribution of the exponential of a random variable following a generalized error...

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) is the fourth largest stock exchange in the world by aggregate market capitalization of its listed companies and largest in East Asia and Asia. It is of great importance for those in charge of managing risk to understand how its market index returns are...

Much of financial engineering is based on so-called “complete markets” and on the use of the Black-Scholes formula. The formula relies on the assumption that asset prices follow a log-normal distribution, or in other words, the daily fluctuations in prices viewed as percentage changes follow...

We construct monetary policy indicators from high-frequency asset price changes following policy announcements, emphasising the concentration of asset price responses along specific dimensions and their leptokurtic distribution. Traditionally, these dimensions are identified by rotating...

This paper studies a Stieltjes-type moment problem defined by the generalized lognormal distribution, a heavy-tailed distribution with applications in economics, finance and related fields. It arises as the distribution of the exponential of a random variable following a generalized error...