"Capital Allocation" endows us to study the probabilistic equilbrium reached from the expected movments of the Stock Market and Treasury Bond market. This equilbirium is employed to calculate the expected time scope in which the equilbrim can be expected. This gives the zenith of the oscillation...

We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...