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1980. Over the period 1955-1979 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices …. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal multiplier, the response of stock prices to the same shock became negative …
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find that an adverse oil supply shock has a negative effect on stock prices when oil inflation is low. In contrast, this … rates encourage firms to get highly leveraged. A negative oil shock in this scenario leads to a substantial increase in … shock, ameliorating the impact on the stock market. …
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We analyze the contribution of credit spread, house and stock price shocks to GDP growth in the US based on a Bayesian VAR with time-varying parameters estimated over 1958-2012. Our main findings are: (i) The contribution of financial shocks to GDP growth fluctuates from about 20 percent in...
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