factors. This paper builds a theoretical model to forecast excess returns on treasury bonds in the context of China's unique … monetary system. Empirical evidence shows that bond excess returns in China are highly predictable when compared to those in … structures of official interest rates set by China's central bank …

financial system but also as a key transmission channel of monetary policy. China is likely to be no exception. However …, specific characteristics in China’s bond markets raise two major questions. First do China’s Treasury bonds offer the benchmark … corporate bond markets yield curve in China. We aim at determining which market plays a leading role in the discovery of each …