We examine the relation between an ex ante measure of IPO growth prospects – the industry-level long-term analyst earnings growth forecast – and short- and long-run IPO returns, using a sample of 7,570 IPOs from 1982 to 2007. The use of an industry-level, rather than firm-level growth...

We use price pressure resulting from purchases by mutual funds with large capital inflows to identify overvalued equity. This is a relatively exogenous overvaluation indicator as it is associated with who is buying, buyers with excess liquidity, rather than what is being purchased. We document...

Using a CCAPM-based risk-adjustment model, we perform yearly valuations of a large sample of stocks listed on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ over a thirty-year period. The model differs from standard valuation models in the sense that it adjusts forecasted residual income for risk in the numerator rather...

We study firm-level characteristics that a manager would employ as signalling tools in order to time the market (i.e. repurchases and issues). Following the market timing framework, we develop a two-factor asset pricing model comprising a “market” and a “mispricing” factor, which is able...

I quantify private benefits of control, and their impact on stock prices, by estimating a structural model of optimal shareholding using data on the ownership dynamics of Italian public companies. The results show that controlling shareholders generally have positive and persistent impact on...

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

This paper uses accounting-based reverse engineering of market expectations to identify potentially mispriced stocks. Building upon the “errors-in-expectations” hypothesis, we develop a theoretically funded yet practical tool for stock screening in this paper. We use the Ohlson (1995) model...

This paper reviews literature on reverse engineering in equity valuation from the perspective of a fundamental investor. Despite a history of over 80 years, the literature on reverse engineering shows no clear consensus on the modelling, conceptualisation and operationalisation of the technique....

We measure the profitability of an investment in voting stocks, considering the prices of both voting and non-voting stocks. As Niehoff (2016) showed, non-voting stocks' prices reflect new information on average faster than the prices of the corresponding voting stocks. To exploit this...

It is shown, through a theoretical model, how firms fundamentals should influence stock (scaled) prices. A sample of about five thousand stocks from thirty developed countries is studied over a period of seventeen years. The empirical evidence is consistent with the theoretical assumptions made,...