This paper studies the effects of predictability on the earnings-returns relation for individual firms and for the aggregate. We demonstrate that prices better anticipate earnings growth at the aggregate level than at the firm level, which implies that random-walk models are inappropriate for...

A principal-components analysis demonstrates that common earnings factors explain a substantial portion of rm-level earnings variation, implying earnings shocks have substantial systematic components and are not almost fully diversifiable as prior literature has concluded. Furthermore, the...

The relation between aggregate earnings and aggregate returns is complex and not fully understood. For example, in contrast to firm-level relations, prior literature finds aggregate earnings changes and aggregate stock returns are negatively related. This paper constructs new measures of...

We examine how managers adapt their disclosure behavior in response to (public) news shocks not anticipated by them. The extent to which such events would affect subsequent disclosure is a function of the nature of the news---whether it represents ``good'' or ``bad'' news, and whether the news...

This paper demonstrates that executive compensation convexity, measured as the sensitivity of managerial equity compensation portfolios to stock volatility, predicts firm-specific crashes. A bottom-to-top decile change in compensation convexity results in a 21% increase in a firm's crash risk...