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Equity option markets exhibit intense trading activity. We use the variability of option implied volatility spread as a …. Over the 2006 – 2016 period, we find that the predictive power of option implied volatility spread for future stock returns … is significantly greater when implied volatility spread has been more variable in the past. Our results are statistically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836056
Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523781
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191413
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
Oil is perceived as a good diversification tool for stock markets. To fully understand this potential, we propose a new empirical methodology that combines generalized autoregressive score copula functions with high frequency data and allows us to capture and forecast the conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010499593
models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our … structural estimation. Based on the market and aggregate consumption data, our estimation provides statistical support for asset …-varying volatility are preferred to the long-run risk model. We analyze asset pricing implications of the estimated models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780610
We conduct a volatility decomposition to identify the source of performance differences between low volatility and high … volatility mutual funds. A higher level of return covariance of fund holdings is associated with more fund-level exposure to the … idiosyncratic volatility effect. Average security-level variance of fund holdings is only weakly associated with idiosyncratic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308758
The proliferation of anomalies and the resulting `factor zoo' has challenged finance researchers to identify firm characteristics that are genuinely related to the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns. We address this challenge using a Bayesian ensemble of trees approach, namely,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217138
We develop a new variational Bayes estimation method for large-dimensional sparse vector autoregressive models with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239660
We survey the literature on stock return forecasting, highlighting the challenges faced by forecasters as well as strategies for improving return forecasts. We focus on U.S. equity premium forecastability and illustrate key issues via an empirical application based on updated data. Some studies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351279