I study the macroeconomic and asset pricing implications of variations in information quality in a real business cycle model. Learning and fluctuating information quality generate changes in the perception of macroeconomic outcomes, but do not modify the distribution of realized shocks. On the...

We implement a new approach for the identification of news shocks about future technology. In a VAR featuring a measure of aggregate technology and several forward-looking variables, we identify the news shock as the shock orthogonal to technology innovations that best explains future variation...

Three years ago we found a statistically reliable link between ConocoPhillips' (NYSE: COP) stock price and the difference between the core and headline CPI in the United States. In this article, the original relationship is revisited with new data available since 2009. The agreement between the...

This paper proposes a framework to study contagious stock bubbles in a multi-sector production economy with heterogeneous investment technologies. Due to financial frictions, stock bubbles arise endogenously that help inject additional liquidity. Due to financial linkages, the existence of...

Stock market variance-return or price relations are sometimes negative and sometimes positive. We explain these puzzling findings using a model with two ("bad" and "good") variances. In the model, conditional equity premium depends positively on bad variance and negatively on good variance....

An asset bubble relaxes collateral constraints and increases borrowing by credit-constrained agents. At the same time, as the bubble deflates when constraints start binding, it amplifies downturns. We show analytically and quantitatively that the macroprudential policy should optimally respond...

Historical share prices of selected S&P 500 companies have been accurately approximated by linear functions of the difference between core CPI and subsets of the CPI in the United States. The pricing model describes the evolution of share price along a predetermined trajectory. The selected...

This paper is a theoretical study of the effects of monetary policy reacting to fluctuations in asset price, accounting for the expectation formation effect of policy regime shift in a DSGE model calibrated to the U.S. economy. We find that the effect of expectation formation can substantially...

Firm volatilities co-move strongly over time, and their common factor is the dispersion of the economy-wide firm size distribution. In the cross section, smaller firms and firms with a more concentrated customer base display higher volatility. Network effects are essential to explaining the...