We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for the estimation of the pricing kernel. Historical stock returns and option market data are combined through the Dirichlet Process (DP) to construct an option-adjusted physical measure. The precision parameter of the DP process is calibrated to the...

We study both theoretically and empirically option prices on firms undergoing a cash merger offer. To estimate the merger's success probability, we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using a state space representation of our model. Our estimated probability measure has significant...

In this paper we present a critical point on connections between stock volatility, implied volatility, and local volatility. The essence of the Black Sholes pricing model is based on assumption that option piece is formed by no arbitrage portfolio. Such assumption effects the change of the real...