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The factor-spline-GARCH model for high and low frequency correlations
Rangel, Jose Gonzalo; Engle, Robert F. - 2009
frequency volatilities and correlations ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Spline-GARCH ; Idiosyncratic volatility ; Long … that characterize long-term correlation patterns. We associate such term behavior with low frequency economic variables … improves the empirical fit of equity correlations in the US and correlation forecasts at long horizons. -- Factor models ; Low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
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Do we need non-linear models to predict REIT returns?
Case, Bradford; Guidolin, Massimo; Yildirim, Yildiray - 2013
We investigate whether the favorable performance of a fairly simple multistate multivariate Markov regime switching model relative to even very complex multivariate GARCH specifications, recently reported in the literature using measures of in-sample prediction accuracy, extends to pseudo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010206925
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Realized Wishart-GARCH : a score-driven multi-Asset volatility model
Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Janus, Paweł; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2016
We propose a novel multivariate GARCH model that incorporates realized measures for the variance matrix of returns. The key novelty is the joint formulation of a multivariate dynamic model for outer-products of returns, realized variances and realized covariances. The updating of the variance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520881
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Return and volatility spillovers across equity markets in mainland China, Hong Kong and the United States
Mohammadi, Hassan; Tan, Yuting - In: Econometrics : open access journal 3 (2015) 2, pp. 215-232
Examinations of the dynamics of daily returns and volatility in stock markets of the US, Hong Kong and mainland China … across markets, with the highest correlation of 93.5% between the two Chinese markets, medium correlation of 30% between … correlations from the DCC model suggest an increase in correlation between China and other stock markets since the most recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011296721
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Gold, oil, and stocks : dynamic correlations
Baruník, Jozef; Kočenda, Evžen; Vácha, Lukáš - 2015
in specific correlation dynamics. A strong implication emerges: during the period under research, and from a different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515402
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Is Your Covariance Matrix Still Relevant? An Asset Allocation-Based Analysis of Dynamic Volatility Models
Colon, James - 2013
evolve, many investors continue to forecast volatility using traditional approaches that are ill-suited to the time …-changing nature of volatility. In this paper, I analyze the performance of seven different multivariate-volatility models using a new … poorly when trying to forecast short-term volatility, and that a more dynamic model often provides superior out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086014
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Large dynamic covariance matrices: enhancements based on intraday data
De Nard, Gianluca; Engle, Robert F.; Ledoit, Olivier; … - 2022 - This version: January 2022
unconditional correlation matrix. In this paper, we show how performance can be increased further by using open/high/low/close (OHLC … but also of dynamic correlations, is the concept of a regularized return, obtained from a volatility proxy in conjunction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040932
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Large dynamic covariance matrices: enhancements based on intraday data
De Nard, Gianluca; Engle, Robert F.; Ledoit, Olivier; … - 2021 - This version: June 2021
unconditional correlation matrix. In this paper, we show how performance can be increased further by using open/high/low/close (OHLC … but also of dynamic correlations, is the concept of a regularized return, obtained from a volatility proxy in conjunction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584099
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Large dynamic covariance matrices: enhancements based on intraday data
De Nard, Gianluca; Engle, Robert F.; Ledoit, Olivier; … - 2020
. (2019) is able to overcome this curse via nonlinear shrinkage estimation of the unconditional correlation matrix. In this … covariances, is the concept of a regularized return, obtained from a volatility proxy in conjunction with a smoothed sign …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012253083
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Covariance Forecasting in Equity Markets
Symitsi, Efthymia - 2018
while adjusting for the volatility risk premium. Relative model performance does not change during the global financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915984