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We develop a model of political cycles driven by time-varying risk aversion. Agents choose to work in the public or private sector and to vote Democrat or Republican. In equilibrium, when risk aversion is high, agents elect Democrats---the party promising more redistribution. The model predicts...
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variation in policies and institutions, providing a rare natural experiment. Allende’s election and subsequent socialist …
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. In a large panel of elections around the world, investment is 40% less sensitive to stock prices during election years … compared to non-election years. The decrease in investment-to-price sensitivity appears to be due to stock prices becoming less … informative during election years making them noisier signals for managers to follow. Further, the drop in investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136818
. In a large panel of elections around the world, investment is 40% less sensitive to stock prices during election years … compared to non-election years. The decrease in investment-to-price sensitivity appears to be due to stock prices becoming less … informative during election years making them noisier signals for managers to follow. Further, the drop in investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148035
After the 2020 U.S. presidential election, counting votes and calling states took more time than usual, particularly in … battleground states. In the days following the election, winning probabilities changed frequently as new results were tabulated …. Based on the sensitivity of stocks to changes in winning probabilities observed before the election, we show how the stock …
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underpricing anomaly. We formulate the election gimmick hypothesis, which states that in order to please the voters the treasury …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061736