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Carlo simulations. Preferences are modeled by time-additive expected utility and, alternatively, by recursive non …-expected utility. The empirical results for the period 1960 to 1994 confirm those for the U.S. and favour the use of recursive non …-expected utility which clearly distinguishes between risk preference and time preference. The leverage approach yields the first moment …
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We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
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We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...
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we focus on are the calculation of the additional utility of the insider and a study of his free lunch possibilities. The … examples are given to illustrate additional utility and free lunch possibilities. In particular, if the insider has advance …
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