We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...

We merge the literature on downside return risk and liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risks. The cross-section of stock returns reflects a premium if a stock's return (liquidity) is lowest at the same time when the market liquidity (return) is lowest....

Most papers in the portfolio choice literature have examined linear predictability frameworks based on the idea that simple but flexible Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models can be expanded to produce portfolio allocations that hedge against the bull and bear dynamics typical of financial markets...

I develop a stochastic growth model with production where there is a hidden state governing productivity growth regimes, and the hidden state evolves according to a Markov chain. Economic agents learn about the hidden state and display ambiguity aversion in the spirit of Klibanoff et al. (2005)....

I study the effects of risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) on optimal portfolios and equilibrium asset prices when investors receive information that is difficult to link to fundamentals. I show that the desire of investors to hedge ambiguity leads to portfolio inertia and excess...

Maximum drawdown refers to the largest cumulative loss of a portfolio within a given time interval. While it has been used by investment professionals as an important measure of portfolio risk for many years, its nature and its implications for asset pricing have not been well understood. The...

The portfolio separating distribution is sufficient and necessary for a preference-free optimal choice only if the solution is assumed to be constant a priori. The portfolio separating condition is generalized. The new distribution class allowing for correlation uncertainty is defined as...

We use the Bayesian method introduced by Gallant and McCulloch (2009) to estimate consumption-based asset pricing models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our structural estimation. Based on the market and aggregate...

We develop and implement methods for determining whether introducing new securities or relaxing investment constraints improves the investment opportunity set for prospect investors. We formulate a new testing procedure for prospect spanning for two nested portfolio sets based on subsampling and...