This paper analyses future trends for intrastate conflict in Africa up to 2050 using the International Futures (IFs) model. After reviewing the main post-Cold War patterns of conflict and instability on the continent, the paper discusses seven key correlations associated with intrastate conflict...

Finds civil wars and their recurrence fall into three patterns: (1) the 'conflict trap,' meaning once a country experiences one civil war, it is significantly more likely to experience additional episodes of violence as shown by a 57 percent recidivism rate from 1945-2009; (2) the dominant form of...