This paper develops a framework for stress-testing the credit risk of Chinese commercial banks to macroeconomic shocks. Using data over the period 1985-2008, this study establishes a vector auto-regression (VAR) model to describe the links between default rate and macroeconomic factors, and then...

This paper builds a macro-prudential tool designed to assess whether the banking sector is adequately prepared to orderly withstand losses resulting from normal or stressed macroeconomic and micro-economic scenarios. The link between the banking sector and the real sector is established via the...

History of scenario planning at Rabobank. Describing the interest rate scenarios and the consumer scenarios that prepared Rabobank for the following credit crisis, housing crisis and pension crisis (Japan scenario)

In this paper we review the actual operational data of an anonymous Central European Bank, using two approaches described in the literature: the loss distribution approach and the extreme value theory (EVT). Within the EVT analysis, two estimation methods were applied; the standard maximum...

One of the main drawbacks of the original CreditRisk+ methodology is that it models the default rates of the sectors (e.g. industry) as independently distributed random variables. Such an assumption has been considered as unrealistic and various approaches have been proposed in order to overcome...

Amidst increased attention on climate change, which is characterised by high uncertainties and long‐term time horizons, the financial sector and supervisors are developing methods and approaches for the evaluation of climate‐related financial risks. This paper proposes a transition capacity...

We investigate the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and banks' balance sheets by referring to a modified version of the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model (BIQM), regularly used for forecasting and policy analysis. In particular, we examine how regulatory bank capital and private sector...

This was the first paper to study exclusively the effects of Ramadan on the United Arab Emirates Stock market. In doing so, the study aims to establish such impacts with the intention of advising the investors on whether it would be profitable to invest during the holy month of Ramadan or no.The...

This paper presents the update of the macroeconometric model used at the Bank of Spain for medium term macroeconomic forecasting, as well as for performing policy simulations. The many changes that the Spanish economy has experimented in the last years, and the new system of national accounts...

This paper aims to illustrate how a Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (MCS-GVAR) model can be set up and solved for the purpose of forecasting and scenario simulation. The application involves two cross-sections: sovereigns and banks for which we model their credit default swap...