We re-examine the probabilistic foundation of the link between Z-score measures and banks' probability of insolvency, offering an improved measure of that probability without imposing further distributional assumptions. While the traditional measure of the probability of insolvency thus provides...

We compare the different existing approaches to the construction of time-varying Z-score measures, plus an additional alternative one, using a panel of banks for the G20 group of countries covering the period 1992-2009.We examine which ways of estimating the moments used in these different...

We develop refined probability bounds for bank insolvency risk measures based on the Z-score, analogous to those given by Cantelli's inequality under the additional assumption of unimodality of returns, drawing on the one-sided Vysochanskii-Petunin inequality. Illustrating empirically for US...