A parsimonious extension of a well-known portfolio credit-risk model allows us to study a salient stylized fact - abrupt switches between high- and low-loss phases - from a risk-management perspective. As uncertainty about phase switches increases, expected losses decouple from unexpected...

We investigate the performance of different variables as anchors for setting the level of the countercyclical regulatory capital buffer requirements for banks. The gap between the ratio of credit-to-GDP and its long-term backward-looking trend performs best as an indicator for the accumulation...

Banks that enjoyed generous external financial support tended to under-price risk in the international syndicated loan market and did not show signs of innovation in their loan participations. Loans arranged by such banks had on average lower spreads (controlling for risk and other...