Climate change poses severe systemic risks to the financial sector through multiple transmission channels. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of different carbon taxes (€50, €100, €200 and €800 per ton of CO2) on the Italian banks’ default rates at the sector level in the...

I propose a simple indicator of climate-related transition risks of banks’ lending activity based on transaction-level loan data. The underlying idea is that the higher the greenhouse gas intensity of an economic activity (and so a debtor), the higher its transition risk. Recent Hungarian...

We examine banks’ exposure to climate transition risk using a bottom-up, loan-level methodology incorporating climate stress test based on the Merton probability of default model and transition pathways from the IPCC. Specifically, we match machine learning predictions of corporate carbon...

We show that carbon-price shocks affect firms’ investment and emission-intensity via a debt-channel. Our identification exploits a reform-driven carbon-price surge in the EU Emission Trading System (EU-ETS) and loan-level credit registry data for Italy. Highly-exposed ETS-firms increase their...

Using data on syndicated loans, we find that the introduction of a carbon tax is associated with an increase in domestic banks' lending to coal, oil, and gas companies in foreign countries. This effect is particularly pronounced for banks with large prior fossil-lending exposures, suggesting a...

We document that European banks charge higher interest rates on loans granted to small and medium-sized firms located in areas at high risk of flooding. At 6 basis points, the average risk premium does not adequately reflect the deterioration of loan performance in the aftermath of flood...