Accurate risk assessment is crucial for predicting potential financial losses. This paper introduces an innovative approach by employing expected risk models that utilize risk samples to capture comprehensive risk characteristics. The innovation lies in the integration of classical credibility...

We develop a new identification strategy to evaluate the impact of the geographic expansion of bank holding company (BHC) assets across U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) on BHC risk. We find that the geographic expansion of bank assets reduces risk. Moreover, geographic expansion...

The establishment of the European Banking Union in 2014 created a large banking market in Europe, making it easier for banks to straddle borders and expand their business to other European countries. We use a unique hand-collected dataset with cross-border loans for the 61 largest European banks...

We study whether a pre-existing link between bank and sovereign credit risk biased euro area banks' sovereign debt portfolio choices during 2011Q4 and 2012Q1 - a period of exceptional increases in their domestic sovereign bond holdings. We find that banks whose creditworthiness is linked to that...

I develop an algorithm to approximate the loss rate distribution for fixed income portfolios with obligor concentrations. The approximation requires no advanced mathematics or statistics, only the summation of large exposures and the evaluation of binomial probabilities. The approximation is...

We develop a new identification strategy to evaluate the impact of the geographic expansion of bank holding company (BHC) assets across U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) on BHC risk. We find that the geographic expansion of bank assets reduces risk. Moreover, geographic expansion...