We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing aimed at assessing banks' capital adequacy, financial fragility and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on which it is...

We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model to stress-test banks' capital adequacy and to estimate probability of infringement of regulatory capital ratios and default probability. The stochastic methodology proposed is based on a simplified reduced model that provides a manageable...

The recent evolution of prudential regulation establishes a new requirement for banks and supervisors to perform reverse stress test exercises in their risk assessment processes, aimed at detecting default or near-default scenarios. We propose a reverse stress test methodology based on a...