The starting point for the research has been the list of 147 banking crises within the period 1976-2011 prepared by the International Monetary Fund. The countries with crises have been analysed with respect to publicly available World Bank indicators in the periods of three years before the...

This paper aims at providing policymakers with a set of early warning indicators helpful in guiding decisions on when to activate macroprudential tools targeting excessive credit growth and leverage. To robustly select the key indicators we apply the “Random Forest” method, which bootstraps...

We identify a set of “rules of thumb” that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970–2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF)...

This paper uses domestic and cross-border linkages to measure the interconnectedness of the banking sector, and relates it to banking crises in Europe. Beyond cross-border financial linkages of the banking sector, we also account for financial linkages to the other main financial and...

I propose a dynamic general equilibrium model in which strategic interactions between banks and depositors may lead to endogenous bank fragility and slow recovery from crises. When banks' investment decisions are not contractible, depositors form expectations about bank risk-taking and demand a...

Using a pan-European data set of 8.5 million firms, this paper finds that firms with high debt overhang invest relatively more than otherwise similar firms if they are operating in sectors facing good global growth opportunities. At the same time, the positive impact of a marginal increase in...

This paper assesses the causes and costs of the Russian banking crisis, the lending behavior of Russian banks, and it evaluates the authorities' response to the crisis. There appears to be evidence for conservative lending behavior on the part of Russian banks. The paper also searches for ways...

This paper discusses the relationship between premia for macroeconomic risk in banking, aggregate behavior, and banking crises. We consider a competitive banking system embedded in an overlapping generation model subject to repeated macroeconomic shocks. We highlight how risk premia decline when...

This paper studies the question to what extent premia for macroeconomic risks in banking are sufficient to avoid banking crises. We investigate a competitive banking system embedded in an overlapping generation model subject to repeated macroeconomic shocks. We show that even if banks fully...

This paper provides a macroeconomic perspective for government interventions in banking crises. We illustrate how vulnerabilities of the banking sector may build up over time and thus destabilize a banking system. A crisis occurs when a large number of banks fail to meet capital requirements or...