This paper investigates the resilience of non-financial firms in Mongolia against financial distress. Utilizing firm-level financial data from 2013 to 2022, we employed a LASSO variable selection technique and logistic regression analysis to develop a distress prediction model for these firms....

This paper documents the extension of the system-wide stress testing framework of the ECB with the insurance sector for a more thorough assessment of risks to financial stability. The special nature of insurers is captured by the modelling of the liability side and its loss absorbing capacity of...

Using a model based on the work of Duarte and Eisenbach (2015), I stress test the Canadian banking system using publicly available data from 1996 to 2015. I find that the Canadian banking system is resilient to all but the most extreme event. This is because (i) strong macroprudential regulation...

This paper identifies shocks to bank credit supply based on firms’ aggregate debt composition. I use a model where firms fund production with bonds and loans. Only bank shocks imply opposite movements in the two types of debt as firms adjust their debt composition to new credit conditions. I...

When capital in the banking system becomes depleted, the degree to which financial intermediation and the macroeconomy are adversely affected is likely to depend on the financial and macroeconomic environment. However, existing studies either assume that the effects of bank capital shocks are...

The recent financial crisis has focused attention on identifying and measuring systemic risk. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to estimate the portfolio composition of banks as function of daily interbank trades and stock returns. While banks’ assets are reported to regulators...

During banking crises, regulators must decide between bailouts or liquidations,neither of which are publicly popular. A comprehensive assessment of regulators,however, requires examining all their decisions against regulators’ objectives of preserving financial stability while discouraging...

We develop an empirically-based simulation study to test policies designed to control systemic risk. We consider preventive policies targeting capital requirements and mitigation policies targeting default resolution. We find that capital buffers reduce both defaults and losses. The loss...

The paper develops an early warning system to identify banks that could face liquidity crises. To obtain a robust system for measuring banks’ liquidity vulnerabilities, we compare the predictive performance of three models – logistic LASSO, random forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting – and...

This study investigates the determinants of banking stability in Africa. We present four measures of banking stability embedding banks' loan loss coverage ratio, insolvency risk, asset quality ratio, and level of financial development, thereby allowing analysis of banking stability determinants...