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Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some...
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This paper analyzes the contagion effects associated with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and identifies bank …
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this mechanism, fire sales can lead to contagion, and one failing bank can cause several more to follow suit. …
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contagion depends on the precise pattern of interbank linkages. We use balance sheet information to estimate the matrix of … contagion. We find that the financial safety net (institutional guarantees for saving banks and cooperative banks) considerably … reduces - but does not eliminate - the danger of contagion. Even so, the failure of a single bank could lead to the breakdown …
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