We present an analysis of VaR forecasts and P&L-series of all 13 German banks that used internal models for regulatory purposes in the year 2001. To this end, we introduce the notion of well-behaved forecast systems. Furthermore, we provide a series of statistical tools to perform our analyses....

When stress tests for the banking sector use a macroeconomic scenario, an unstated premise is that macro variables should be useful factors in forecasting the performance of banks. We assess whether variables such as the ones included in stress tests for U.S. bank holding companies help improve...

We present a model of bank passivity and regulatory failure. Banks with low equity positions have more incentives to be passive in liquidating bad loans. We show that they tend to hide distress from regulatory authorities and are ready to offer a higher rate of interest in order to attract...

The main results of the macro stress testing exercise in this paper reveal that Malaysia's banking sector is resilient, well diversified, and highly interconnected. Further, Malaysia has a thriving equity market, large bond market and growing private debt securities. Main results of the baseline...

Asian crisis in the late 1990s exposed the inherent deficiencies of Basel I, and exactly a decade later the 2008 global credit mayhem clearly proved that the Revised Framework (Basel II) and the IMF's Financial Sector Assessment Program contributed to instability rather than averting...