Investment in the petroleum industry is heavily exposed to various risks due to their capital-intensive nature, high initial investment, and long-lived and highly specific asset. Risk assessment methods should consider the analysis and effect of key risks on profitability indicators of such...

We analyze a petroleum refinery's procurement strategy, explaining how risk management affects optimal sourcing from long-term, spot, and swap contracts. We use time series analysis to model the interaction between petroleum prices, transportation costs, and gross product worth. These models are...